COVID-19 Growth Modeling/Forecasting with Logistic, Hill Equations and Prophet
COVID-19 is a hot topic these days. Healthcare workers are the first line of defense. If you are in IT you are
part of the fight against the virus. I thought I should do my part and implement a method to forecast coronavirus
growth and dates when the number of infections could stabilize. Forecast is calculated based on last available
data, using logistic and Hill functions. Calculation is done daily, when new infections data is available.
Backtesting is done by forecasting from 5 days in the past.
- Two equations are being used to forecast COVID-19 infections - Logistic and Hill
- Logistic equation is being used indirectly to calculate fastest growth day and expected top. Logistic curve is calculated using FB Prophet
- Backtesting is done by forecasting from 5 days in the past
- If current forecast is above backtesting forecast, this means previous forecast was too optimistic
- If current forecast is below backtesting forecast, this means previous forecast was too pessimistc